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Exam 5: Demand Forecasting

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Question 1

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The impact of poor communication and inaccurate forecasts resonates along the supply chain and results in the:

A) Bullwhip effect
B) Delphi method
C) CPFR effect
D) Mean deviation

E) B) and C)
F) A) and D)

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Question 2

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List FOUR benefits that can be achieved by implementing a successful CPFR program.

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a.Strengths partner relationships
b.Prov...

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Question 3

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Which of the following indices provided by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is considered the most important by economists because it is a composite of five weighted,seasonally adjusted indices?

The modern day business environment must deal with a more homogenous consumer base,which has caused the evolution of a more "push" oriented environment where suppliers must focus on manufacturing high volumes of standardized goods and convince consumers to buy their products.

$\begin{array}{lll}\text { Month } & \text { Actual } & \text { Forecast } \\\hline 1 & 10 & 11 \\2 & 8 & 10 \\3 & 9 & 8 \\4 & 6 & 6 \\5 & 7 & 8\end{array}$ -A forecasting method has produced the following data over the past 5 months shown in Data Set E2.What is the mean absolute deviation (accurate to 2 decimals) ?

Some of the benefits of CPFR include strengthening partner relationships,providing an analysis of sales and order forecasts,and allowing collaboration on future requirements and planning.

Answer the following questions regarding quantitative and qualitative forecasting: a.Define quantitative forecasting. b.Explain the naïve forecasting method and give an example. c.What are the benefits of using the naïve forecasting method? d.Under which circumstances would one utilize a combination of both quantitative and qualitative forecasting?

In the Delphi forecasting method,a group of internal and external experts are surveyed during several rounds in terms of future events and long-term forecasts of demand but the group members do not physically meet.

Associative forecasting methods are based on opinions and intuition.

As tighter control limits are instituted for the tracking signal,there is a greater probability of finding exceptions that require no action,but it also means catching changes in demand earlier.

Which one of the following is not a type of qualitative forecasting?

Your company is conducting forecasting that revolves around the current recession and expansion of the U.S.economy.This type of forecasting can be referred to as what component of a time series?

Explain the key challenges of CPFR implementation.

Which of the following is NOT a benefit of CPFR?

According to the textbook,which of the following is NOT a way to closely match supply and demand?

The following time-series approach to forecasting uses historical data to generate a forecast and works well when demand is fairly stable over time:

Cause-and-Effect Models can have multiple independent variables.

The four components of time series data are: trend variations,cyclical variations,seasonal variations,and random variations.Briefly describe each type of variation.

The difference between a simple regression forecast and a multiple regression forecast is that simple regression is used when there is only one explanatory (or independent)variable,while multiple regression is used when there are numerous explanatory variables.

$\begin{array}{lll}\text { Month } & \text { Actual } & \text { Forecast } \\\hline 1 & 10 & 11 \\2 & 8 & 10 \\3 & 9 & 8 \\4 & 6 & 6 \\5 & 7 & 8\end{array}$ -Based on the information in Data Set E2,what is the mean squared error (accurate to 2 decimals) ?